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DIFFERENCE GROUP
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 China’s Consumption Recovery Amid The Highest US Tariffs In 100 YearsEurasia Review, April 25, 2025. Three rounds of US trade wars have dramatically penalized world economies, particularly the United States. While China cannot avoid the tariff impact, the economy is currently on track for recovery. |  US Trade Wars and Military Globalization Spark Complex AlignmentsAntiwar.com, April 22, 2025. Thanks to President Trump’s new round of international tariffs, global economy is now at the risk of unraveling. This is not just the result of plunging world trade and investment, but of soaring US military expenditures. |
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 Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest: The Three Rounds of the Trump Tariff WarsThe European Financial Review, April 9, 2025. In just days, President Trump has caused a meltdown in world markets and undermined global recovery, as he did in 2017. But now his economic weapons are far more destructive, as evidenced by the three rounds of the tariff wars. |  How to Fragment Globalization: Trump's International Tariff WarsChina-US Focus, Apr 4, 2025. After a decade of deglobalization and US geopolitics, globalization is no longer at crossroads, but unraveling. The longer this plunge prevails, the greater will be its costs. "Global integration is no longer at crossroads. The economic Cold War is already in progress," he warns. "Globalization is unraveling." |
 The Demise of the Two-State Solution: The Assassination of Count Folke BernadotteAntiwar.com, April 2, 2025. Until recently, the West has pledged in the name of a two-state model in the partitioned Israel/Palestine. But it has been replaced by a unitary state that is decreasingly secular and democratic. In retrospect, the two-state solution died in Jerusalem on September 17, 1948. |  The Boao Forum: Shared future amid trade headwindsDespite the tariff wars, China and other Asian countries can benefit from half a dozen opportunities for a shared future. |
 The drug crisis that Duterte inheritedThe Manila Times, March 17, 2025. With the deportation of former president Duterte, the Philippines seems to be moving toward increasing political instability and economic uncertainty. |  Was October 7 Avoidable?Antiwar.com, March 10, 2025. After the Hamas-led offensive of October 7, 2023, it was portrayed as “Israel’s 9/11,” which came out of the blue. Yet, this assumption is not supported by verified facts, including ignored intelligence, abandoned hostages and neglected Israeli communities around Gaza. |
 Unsurprisingly, US Economic Prospects Take a Negative TurnModern Diplomacy, March 2, 2025. As Washington’s tariff wars are escalating, the stakes are increasingly global. Now red lights also blink over the US economic outlook. |  Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs of Trade DestructionChina-US Focus, Feb 21, 2025. At the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, investor Warren Buffett warned of derivatives as weapons of financial mass destruction. President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" could have a similar impact on world trade. (Figure: US Imports by Country 2024) |
 Netanyahu’s Quest to Attack Iran with the 'Mother of all Bombs'Informed Comment, Feb. 17, 2025. The emboldened Netanyahu cabinet is in a war path, again. It is mobilizing to attack Iran and lobbying President Trump into a plan that presumably would use the “Mother of All Bombs.” |  Trump’s Quest for Expansion, Domination and Spheres-of-InfluenceTRT World, Feb 13, 2025. The Trump administration is seeking expansion in North America, while fostering hemispheric defense across the Americas and spheres-of-influence domination in critical world regions. |
 Trump's Sphere-of-Influence Tariffs: Bad Economics, Bad GeopoliticsChina-US Focus, Feb 7, 2025. By trying to weaponize the U.S. tariffs on America's big trade partners against China, President Trump is basing bad economics on worse geopolitics. It could prove a costly prelude to a global downturn. |  Ethnic Cleansing for “Gaza’s Riviera”?A Secret Israeli Memo and Trump’s Plan to Displace 2.3 million Palestinians. Informed Comment, Feb. 5, 2025. During a press conference with PM Netanyahu on Tuesday evening, President Trump said the United States “will take over” the Gaza Strip. Around the world, observers were shocked. But the statement didn’t come out of the blue. |
 Interview with China News NetworkChina News Network, Jan 27, 2025. #Insights During an exclusive interview with China News Network, Dr Dan Steinbock noted that China’s rise benefits the Global South. In addition, Steinbock stressed that advanced technology should no longer be the exclusive privilege of the West but belong to all. |  Trump 2.0 and Palestinians: From Reversal to Repression and DeportationsModern Diplomacy, Jan 28, 2025. The first Trump administration reversed decades of US policies regarding Palestinians. The new one shuns genocidal atrocities. It prefers cultural genocide. |
 The Fatal Effort to Dismantle UNRWAInformed Comment, Jan 16, 2025. By Dan Steinbock Over the past 15 months, the international community has failed to prevent genocidal atrocities in Gaza. Dismantling the UN refugee agency would perfect the nightmare. |  Trump's Game, China's MoveChina-US Focus, Dec 20, 2024. The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge. |
 THE FALL OF ISRAEL“Israel is in deep trouble at home and abroad. It has become an apartheid state that is executing a genocide in Gaza. The Fall of Israel does an outstanding job explaining the causes and the evolution of the disastrous path that Israel is on. This book deserves to be widely read.”—JOHN MEARSHEIMER, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago (Click the image for the book) |  German Translation of THE FALL OF ISRAELSteinbock, Dan. Der Untergang Israels: Die Degradierung von Israels Politik, Wirtschaft und Militär Translated by Jochen Mitschka. Dec. 10. 2024 [Click the image for the website] |
 Tariff Wars Will Penalize TradeChina Daily, Dec 17, 2024. If the 2021-23 inflation surge in the United States helped Trump’s election triumph, his likely trade wars will penalize world trade and exacerbate bilateral ties with China, again. But China has its toolbox for counter-moves. |  From Dollar Monopoly to BRICS Diversification: An UpdateModern Diplomacy, Nov4, 2024. The pressure toward the diversification of world currency reserves intensified after 2008, escalated following 2022 and is accelerating, as evidenced by the recent BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. |
 US 2024 Presidential Race Is Paving the Way to a Calamitous Trade WarChina-US Focus, Sept 21, 2024. For months, the U.S. presidential race has been hyped by national and international media with its incessant hunger for the latest sound-bites. Nonetheless, views don’t make the world go around; money does, especially big money. Polls are shaped by media. Media is bought by campaigns. Candidates’ views are tailored to and by campaign finance, which is dominated by the powerful interests that make and break most Democratic and Republican campaigns. |  The secret US anti-vax scandal in PH is boilingThe Manila Times, July 29, 2024. As the Pentagon has tacitly acknowledged its secret anti-vax campaign, a scandal is simmering. Why did requested witnesses avoid Senator Marcos’s hearing? Does Manila have a legal recourse? Did the Pentagon campaign set the stage to the U-turn in US-Philippine military relations? |
 Integrated megapolises next stage of reformChina Daily, June 11, 2024. After record rapid urbanization, China is moving to the next stage with the development of integrated and coordinated multi-city clusters. The Yangtze River Delta region is a case in point. |  Bringing Vietnamese Counterinsurgency to the Philippines and South China Sea (Part I)The World Financial Review, Apr 22, 2024. Trilateral militarization between the US, Japan and the Philippines has started, starting with maritime counterinsurgency, missiles and nuclearization. In the coming years, it will penalize development and unleash extraordinary uncertainty in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. |
 Making or Breaking Finland's Future: A Behind- the-façade Look at Finland After the 2024 ElectionThe World Financial Review, Feb 7, 2024. Since June 2023, Finland has been led by the most far-right government of its postwar history. The past economic success is past. The NATO membership is increasing security costs and risks. Risks hover over and above the “last welfare state standing”. And these risks will accelerate with the new conservative, pro-NATO president. |  What Led to the Gaza-Israel Catastrophe?The World Financial Review, Oct 19, 2023. Dr Steinbock's analysis examines the Israeli far-right, the fall of the peace movement; the Kahane-inspired religious terror; the rise of US military aid and decline of Israeli labor; the interplay of Hamas and Netanyahu; the settlements and apartheid; US neoconservative effort at regional conflict with Iran; and the need for new multilateral diplomacy [click the image for the story] |
 The Coming BRICS Currency DiversificationChina-US Focus, Aug 5, 2023. The pressure toward the diversification of world currency reserves is longstanding. It intensified after 2008, but has escalated since 2022. It is a prime topic in the next BRICS Summit that’s likely to further intensify the trend. |  Myths of China's Global Inflation, Deflation RisksChina Daily Global, July 17, 2023. In early spring, international pundits portrayed China’s reopening as a global inflation risk. Today, it is depicted as a global deflation risk. In reality, both narratives are myths. Despite international headwinds, China’s rebound is strengthening. - Dr Steinbock is a featured contributor of China Daily. |
 The Nuclear Plan to Decapitate Russia and China (and the Planet)The European Financial Review July 14, 2023. Even as the whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers passed away, his second secret remains hushed. Until 2017, it was not known that Ellsberg also secretly copied files on Pentagon's nuclear plans to “decapitate” Russia, China and our planet. |  US Big Defense, the Only Winner of the Ukraine Proxy WarAntiwar.com, Feb. 15, 2023. Not only do these global military contractors arm Ukraine, but they stand to benefit from the re-militarization of Western Europe, Japan, and the new NATO members. |
 The Unwarranted Ukraine Proxy War: A Year LaterThe World Financial Review, Jan. 27, 2023. In this 5,000-word analysis, Dr Steinbock explains why Russia’s economy has remained resilient; how media has suppressed the dark realities of destruction and Ukraine’s devastated economy; how the war is undermining the West’s economic performance; how the US and international war funding is budgeted to support hostilities until late 2020s; and the disastrous impact on global economy, major economies, and the Global South (for the story click the image) |  The Long-Term Economic Implications of the Ukraine WarThe American Conservative, January 4, 2023. The protracted conflict and human suffering in Ukraine are predicated on massive US military aid, which is transforming the ailing country into a bankrupt failed state. Dr Steinbock wrote his commentary as a "sequel" to Col. (ret.) Douglas Macgregor's "Washington Is Prolonging Ukraine's Suffering" (TAC, Dec. 20, 2022). Macgregor focuses on the geopolitical implications. Dr Steinbock examines the long-tern economic consequences. [click image for story] |
 TalkMarkets (UK), Oct 3, 2022. Not so long ago, Brazil’s BRIC economy soared as working people and tTalkMarkets (UK), Oct 3, 2022. Not so long ago, Brazil’s BRIC economy soared as working people and the poor were able to join the labor force and formal economy. In just years, a “soft coup” and far-right president derailed Lula’s miracle. What next? |  Great Powers and Globalization: Spotlight on the United States and ChinaAustrian National Bank (OeNB) and Austrian Federal Economic Chamber (WKÖ), June, 2022. In his contribution to the prestigious yearbook, Dr Steinbock warns that global economic prospects are being derailed. world trade, investment and migration, coupled with the unwarranted suffering of more than 100 million globally displaced. The yearbook features renowned authors from the OECD, European Commission, European Parliament, CEPS, HSBC and various universities. (Click the image for the analysis) |
 The Center of International Insecurity: Biden, CNAS/WestExec - Revolving Doors and Big DefenseThe World Financial Review (UK), July-August 2022. The Biden administration is no longer in charge of the White House. Relying on a network of think-tanks and corporate proxies, the Big Defense is. Takeaways: - Inflated China threat for more spending - Collusion with Big Defense. - Campbell's pivot to insecurity. - From CNAS to WestExec and other corporate proxies. - The many bedfellows of Blinken and Sullivan. - Pentagon, Austin and private equity..(Click the image for the analysis) |  The Unwarranted Proxy War in UkraineThe World Financial Review, March 10, 2022. The avoidable war that will penalize severely Ukraine, Russia, the US and the NATO, Europe, developing economies and the global economy. To Russia and Ukraine, the crisis is an existential issue. To the US and NATO, it’s a regime-change game. To Europe, it means the demise of stability – in the world economy, lost years (and that’s the benign scenario). But if the war was unwarranted, why did it happen? (Click the image for the analysis) |
 The Contradictions of the “Biden Doctrine”The World Financial Review, Oct. 25, 2021. With its internal contradictions, the “Biden Doctrine” is fostering Trump-style China wars, while its military overreach is paving the way to debt crises. |  The Dark Forces Behind American InsurrectionistsThe World Financial Review, Jan. 18, 2021. The final goal of the mob of white supremacists who stormed the US Capitol may have involved assassinations of elected officials. Dr Steinbock identifies the insurrectionists’ bedfellows in the Trump administration and their infiltration of US law enforcement. He shows the big money behind the campaign finance of ultra-conservative politicians favored by the far-right. And he shows how the shrinking US middle class has given rise to these extremists. |
 The Tragedy of MORE Missed OpportunitiesAugust 2020. Dr Steinbock's new report is the sequel of the first one (April). It focuses on the net effects of the belated responses by the major advanced economies: in addition to the past containment failures and failed crisis management, the more recent premature exits, new policy mistakes and the consequent collateral damage in all major income group economies. It was released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a major global think-tank (click the image for the report). |  Trump's Dangerous Iran EscalationThe World Financial Review, Jan. 13, 2020. The assassination of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani by the Trump administration reflects decades of regime change efforts that have taken a perilous turn. In addition to the destabilized Iran, policy mistakes could push the global economy into a synchronized contraction in 2020. |
 Indo-Pacific, Project 49 and TaiwanWorking Paper, July 2019. The Trump administration's new, muscular Indo-Pacific strategy has been privatized by corporations, defense contractors, foreign governments. From the 2049 scheme to the Project 2049 Institute and Armitage International, to Indo-Pacific networks and the Taiwan nexus, these efforts stem from Pentagon think-tank in the 1980s. They also share dark associations with the Vietnam War and Iran-contra debacle, Afghanistan, the BCCI bank, drugs, 9/11, terrorism and Taiwan. |  Toward Japan's End-GameSouth China Morning Post, May 1, 2019. As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the impact of Abenomics, risky monetary policy, and the OECD's odd austerity solutions to Japan's challenges. |
 US-Sino Futures, Global ConsequencesChina Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, May 2019 [downloaded more than 100,000 times!] With high growth rates during the past two decades and the largest trade surplus with the United States, China is the primary target of the U.S. trade war efforts. Tariffs are the first shot in bilateral tensions that are multilateralizing and injuring global economic integration, coupled with ever more intense technology competition. |  Public Agendas, Private GainsThe Manila Times / China-US Focus, April 8, 2019. In the contested ICC and South China Sea issues, there are increasing concerns about public agendas fueled by private interests. Former PH Foreign Secretary del Rosario's think-tank and its many bedfellows are a case in point. Dr Steinbock identifies the key characters in these organizations and takes a closer look at their interest conflicts and energy reserves, bilateral alliances, links among think-tanks, governments and moneymakers. |
 A Postcard from MalaysiaSeeking Alpha, Feb 25, 2019. Not so long ago, Malaysia was set to lose years of economic progress. Today, following the re-imposition of economic discipline, the country is almost back on track. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the Najib regression, Mahathir's fiscal consolidation, Anwar Ibrahim's expected rule, the return to robust growth and efforts to prepare for future economic contingencies. |  The Great Dollar DebacleThe World Financial Review, Nov-Dec, 2018. The print version of Dr Steinbock's cover story has been released. The share of US dollar in international payments is disproportionate relative to America’s eroding global position and depends on international goodwill that Washington is shunning. US dollar is changing from a safe haven to a safe house that’s costly and vulnerable. The end of America’s “exorbitant privilege” looms in the horizon. [for the full cover story, please click the image] |
 GJIA: Trading the Global FutureGeorgetown Journal of International Affairs, Aug. 20 - Sept 13, 2018. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs - a major US journal on international relations - has published Dr Steinbock's three-part series on "Trading the Global Future." It presents three arguments against the Trump administration's US-Sino Tariff Wars - bad timing, bad policies, and bad consequences. In the last part, he also outlines three possible outline scenarios - from costly bilaterally to very costly globally. |  Petrodollar Versus PetroyuanGeorgetown Journal of International Affairs, January 18, 2017. In the late 20th century, US petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. If the former grew on the back of postwar growth in the advanced economies, the latter is fueled by industrialization in emerging and developed economies. |
 The Trump IP War Against ChinaGeorgetown Journal of International Affairs, November 14, 2017. In recent weeks, intellectual property (IP) disputes have caused friction between Washington and Beijing. Will that friction spark a global trade war? In his commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at contradictory views on Chinese IP, the post-hearings state of Sino-US IP relations, the US IP Commission's biased advocacy role, and the historical timing of the IP friction. |  Struggle for Bolivia's FutureTalkMarkets, October 12, 2017. While middle class Bolivians are demonstrating against the incumbent president’s bid to extend term limits, the country is thriving after a decade of progress under Evo Morales. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at a decade of progress under Morales, the shift from neoliberal policies to inclusive growth and Bolivia's future trajectories. |
 G20: Overcoming Global Steel CrisisThink 20 Dialogue (G20 Germany), April 25, 2017. In 2016, advanced economies accused China for steel overcapacity. Before the Hamburg Summit, similar charges have surfaced. Yet, the postwar era has witnessed two steel overcapacity crises. The current debate cannot afford to ignore the past lessons. In this commentary for the prestigious G20 Germany blog, Dr Steinbock assesses the current steel output situation, overcapacity crises and policy responses in 70s and today, and the right solutions. |  Obrador's Mexican TriumphConsortiumNews (US), July 1, 2018. For decades, the specter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has haunted Mexico’s ruling elites. After July 1, his coalition triumph - after years of contested elections - could change the country’s domestic, regional, even international policies. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at Mexico's failure to sustain its BRIC potential in the neoliberal Calderón and Nieto years, contested elections and the dramatic rise of the Obrador coalition. |
 China Quarterly of International Strategic StudiesChina Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Jan 2018. This has been downloaded a record over 100,000 times (Click the image for samples) |  Le-Penization of FranceThe World Financial Review, March 31, 2017. In a new cover story, Dr Steinbock says that while media focuses on Emmanuel Macron as the savior of France, the real story is that Marine Le Pen's agenda has shifted the political landscape. Along with French economy, he looks at Macron's hidden financiers, Le Pen's agenda, Fillon's public debacle, and socialists Hamon and Mélenchon. To sustain the victory, the next president - most likely Macron in the 2nd round - must coopt Le Pen's agenda. |
 Time for African Economic MiracleBusinessDay Nigeria, March 2, 2017. In the 20th century, Africa gained political independence but fell behind economic boom. In the 21st century, it is Africa’s turn – but not without stronger state and new external push. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock, like Justin Ifu Lin, advocates a new view of economic development, particularly to overcome illicit financial outflows, corruption and lawlessness in many emerging economies. |  The Great Shift of GlobalizationChina Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Jan 2017. Dr Steinbock analyzes the current state of globalization, including the eclipse of the US postwar trade regime and the rise of 'south-to-south' trade (esp. OBOR). He concludes that while global economic integration was initiated by advanced West in the 20th century, it will be completed by emerging economies in the 21st century. |
 Why Are Pakistan's markets Soaring?Global Times, December 21, 2016. During six decades of US aid, Pakistan’s living standards plunged. But in the past year, Asia’s largest frontier market delivered foretaste of its promise; with China’s support. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock's analyzes the forces behind Pakistan's recent market success, the eclipse of US-Pakistan military ties, Pakistan's economic development with China and the country's second historical effort of modernization. |  Brexit Uncertainty, Volatility, RiskGeorgetown Journal of International Affairs, June 20, 2016. The UK’s EU referendum is too tight to call, which will virtually ensure protracted economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. The worst has already happened. In this essay, Dr Steinbock presents two obvious referendum outcome scenarios, two more probable scenarios, and a brief on the final outcome in view of the UK's democracy deficit. The result? More uncertainty, more volatility, more risk. |
 President Duterte, the US and ChinaCNN, May 11, 2016. How could Duterte’s presidency affect U.S.-Philippines relations? The next likely Philippines President will be more independent in critical economic, political and military decisions - decisions that will also shape Southeast Asia’s future. |  O novo plano quinquenal da ChinaExpresso, Nov. 7, 2015. In Portugal's leading business daily, Dr Steinbock examines China's new five-year plan. The brief was re-published by the Portuguese government. A desaceleração do crescimento e a duplicação dos padrões de vida favorecem o reequilíbrio da economia - se a geopolítica se mantiver positiva... A velha China das fábricas, investimentos e exportações está a desaparecer. A nova China dos serviços, inovação e consumo vai emergindo. |
 China's Big Debt SwapForeign Affairs, March 18, 2015. China’s GDP growth rate is decelerating, due to international headwinds, property markets and local debt. Concurrently, the reforms are accelerating, as evidenced by the great swap deal. |  American Innovation Under Structural Erosion and Global Pressures (2015)Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Feb 2015. This report assesses the current state of the American innovation ecosystem, compares it to the systems of our top global competitors and argues that we need a comprehensive national innovation strategy, backed by significant government investment, to restore the United States to global leadership. |
 The Great Triangle Drama: The Euro Zone Debt Crisis, the U.S. Fiscal Cliff, and Chinese Growth ProspAmerican Foreign Policy Interests, March 2013. In early 2013, Europe's leaders argued that the euro zone had weathered the worst of the sovereign debt crisis. In reality, the euro zone crisis is far from over as evidenced by intense friction over austerity policies and soaring unemployment, controversial monetary policies, an inadequate liquidity cushion, impending insolvencies, a banking crisis, and the erosion of competitiveness and innovation. |  The Challenges for America’s Defense Innovation (2014)Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Nov. 2014. Defense innovation is a key driver of U.S. security and economic competitiveness, however our preeminence in this area is under threat. |
 Decline of US Military InnovationThe Project Syndicate, Jan 27, 2015. Despite America’s superior military capabilities, U.S. defense innovation is at a challenging crossroads |  China's Next Stage of Growth: Reassessing U.S. Policy toward China (2010)American Foreign Policy Interests, Dec. 2010. he basic framework of U.S. policy toward China was created amid the peak of the cold war. There is a case to be made that basic elements should be reassessed in light of China's next stage of growth and structural shifts in the global economy. That reassessment is vital especially in U.S.–Chinese economic relations because they hold the potential to facilitate global recovery—or constrain it. |
 NATO and Northern Europe: From Nordic Balance to Northern Balance (2008)American Foreign Policy Interests, Sept 2008. Through the cold war, the bipolar order between the United States and the Soviet Union was reflected by the “Nordic balance” between the Nordic NATO members (Norway, Denmark, Iceland) and the nonmembers (Sweden, Finland). Today Northern Europe is broader, rapidly integrating, prosperous, and one of the most competitive regions worldwide. Nordic balance has been surpassed by a more fluid northern balance. |  The Eurozone Debt Crisis: Prospects for Europe, China, and the United States (2012)American Foreign Policy Interests, Feb. 2012. Europe—with the current or realigned Eurozone—is heading toward a reset, which will inevitably affect U.S. strategic interests. Throughout the postwar era, U.S. interests were coupled with those of Europe in the transatlantic economy. The severity of the current economic crises and the complexity of political decision making in the Eurozone make ruling out “catastrophic risk” impossible in strategic considerations. |
 The Rise of Chinese and Indian InnovatorsStrategic Innovators (India), String 2006. Multinationals in China and India are seeking more sustainable competitive advantages by shifting from imitation to innovation. |  The Rise of the Chinese MultinationalsThe National Interest, fall 2005, China is no longer just a destination for foreign direct investment--it is the home for Asia's new multinationals. |
In the past, the West drove the global economic prospects. Today, that role belongs to the Global South.
"Either the future is shared, or it won’t be."
Dan Steinbock
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