The Dark Forces Behind American Insurrectionists
Jan. 18, 2021. The final goal of the mob of white supremacists who stormed the US Capitol may have involved assassinations of elected officials. In his brief, Dr Steinbock identifies the insurrectionists’ bedfellows in the Trump administration, and their infiltration of US law enforcement agencies. He identifies the big money behind the campaign finance of ultra-conservative politicians favored by the far-right. And he shows how the shrinking US middle class has given rise to these extremists.
Overstretch: The Long Shadow of Soaring US Debt
December 20, 2020. If the past year was dominated by the huge human costs of COVID-19, the next few years will be about its economic aftermath, including the alarming rise of US debt. What’s needed is multilateral cooperation - a new 'Grand Alliance.'
RPEC: Why World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Matters
China Daily, November 16, 2020. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is an extraordinary achievement amid aggressive geopolitics, self-defeating trade wars, and accelerating global pandemic. It is also a leap toward a better future.
China's 'Dual circulation' to sustainable growth
China Daily, November 3, 2020. While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development strategy seeks to foster.
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN Recovery
The Manila Times, Oct 18, 2020. In 2021, the return to growth in major ASEAN economies rests on the containment of COVID-19, structural growth and global outlook. Due to rising deficits, debt and political volatility, the recovery will be bumpy.
What Happened to EU Integrity with Philippines?
The European Financial Review, October 2020. Recently, EU Parliament adopted a resolution denouncing the state of human rights and press freedom in the Philippines under President Duterte. Yet, the resolution seems to rely on flawed data, political agendas and prejudicial bias.
The Tragedy of MORE Missed COVID-19 Opportunities
The World Financial Review (UK), September 1, 2020 [Online / Print in Sept-Oct issue]. As the epicenter of the COVID-19 is moving from the Americas to India and poorer economies, G20 countries remain severely affected. As the world faces new and more virulent strains, the world economy must cope with lost years (for the full commentary, click this image)
The Tragedy of MORE Missed Opportunities
August 2020. Dr Steinbock's new report is the sequel of the first one (April). It focuses on the net effects of the belated responses by the major advanced economies: in addition to the past containment failures and failed crisis management, the more recent premature exits, new policy mistakes and the consequent collateral damage in all major income group economies. It was released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a major global think-tank (click the image for the report).
From Shenzhen’s Economic Miracle to Greater Bay’s Global Innovation
China Daily, August 26, 2020. Since the 1980s, China’s reforms and Special Economic Zones have sparked Shenzhen’s economic miracle, Guangdong’s industrial transformation and Greater Bay Area’s innovation engine. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the origins of Shenzhen and GBA and explains why the region, as an economic engine, is already almost three times bigger than the US Silicon Valley.
From Trump’s TikTok Mess to Tech Cold War against China
China Daily, Aug 14, 2020. As the US economy is expanding trade wars, which will derail global recovery, the Trump White House is targeting Chinese innovators thus fostering US national champions under the pretext of ‘national security.
Trump White House Biggest Threat to US Dollar
China Daily, July 29, 2020. As the US economy is heading toward its disastrous 2nd quarter results, the Trump administration is considering the expansion of the trade war to finance, which could destabilize the US dollar and derail the post-pandemic global economy.
G7 Contraction or Global Depression?
The Street July 20, 2020. Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.
Prepare for Global Impact of US COVID-19 Resurgence
EconoMonitor July 16, 2020. Recently, the US has suffered a series of COVID-19 surges. The escalation won’t stay in America. It is likely to cause collateral damage worldwide, including a series of debt crises.
Future and Dark Clouds over Hong Kong
China Daily, June 22, 2020. The Hainan Free Trade Port plan is aligned with China’s new Silk Road initiatives, Guangdong's Greater Bay Area plan and deeper ties with Southeast Asia. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock examines Hainan's role as a vital link to the 21st century Maritime Silk Road and explains how the 2019 "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act" would undermine US multinationals and Hong Kong's economic future.
Worse-Than-Expected Coronavirus Contraction in ASEAN-4
The Manila Times, June 15, 2020. In the coming months, success or failure to contain the global pandemic and overcome the coronavirus contraction has potential to make or break the promise of Southeast Asia in the early 21st century.
Trump's Final Gamble: From Chinagate to Hybrid Wars
China-US Focus, June 7, 2020. The disastrous failure of the Trump administration to contain COVID-19 will result in catastrophic 2nd quarter data. As a result, Trump is risking his re-election on domestic unrest, fatal geopolitics and a global depression.
Tragedy of Missed Opportunities: COVID-19 Costs/Damages
Dr Steinbock's new report focuses on the COVID-19 human costs and economic damage. The global pandemic was not inevitable, as evidenced by the relatively successful containment by China and other early mobilizers. The US and the EU began full mobilization only in late March, 4-8 weeks later. Hence the huge human costs and massive economic damage. The report was released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a major global think-tank.
Europe's Pandemic Dilemma
The European Financial Review, June-July 2020 (online May 20, 2020). In the ongoing battle against the global pandemic, belated responses will result in huge human costs and massive economic damage. In Europe, losses are climaxing in the 2nd quarter of 2020. [for the commentary, click this image]
China's Two Sessions Herald Rebound of Economy
China Daily, May 20, 2020. As the coronavirus fallout is spreading in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires global cooperation, however. [for the commentary, click the image]
Prepare for Defective Herd Immunity
TalkMarkets (UK), May 10, 2020. As advanced economies have failed to contain COVID-19, fattened epidemic curves could make the global pandemic longer and deadlier. The UK debate on herd immunity and the subsequent coronavirus fallout is a case in point.
China as COVID-19 scapegoat
The Manila Times, May 17, 2020. After the disastrous mishandling of its COVID-19 battle, the Trump White House blames China for the virus, at the cost of American lives and worst contraction since the 1930s.
Coronavirus Contraction in ASEAN
The Manila Times, Apr 20, 2020. After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.
Virus Escalation and Debt Explosion in Europe
The European Financial Review, March 30, 2020. Today, the number of confirmed cases in Europe is more than four times as high as in China. It wasn’t an inevitable scenario. It is the result of complacency, inadequate preparedness and missed opportunities.
The Global Coronavirus Contraction
The World Financial Review, March/April [Mar 21], 2020
The epicenter of the outbreak is now in Europe and the US. In the commentary,
Dr Steinbock examines the state of worldwide infection rates, the path toward a rebound of the Chinese economy; contraction, stagnation and debt in the US, Europe and Japan; the limited early damage in emerging economies, but coupled with rapidly-rising risks; the consequences of inadequate preparedness in the US and the UK.
Economy Should Prepare for Outside Risks
China Daily, March 18, 2020. Despite China’s success in containment, the novel coronavirus is exploding outside China, due to complacency and inadequate preparedness.
COVID-19 Obligations: Rich and Poor Countries
Inter-Press Service News, March 16, 2020 [English, Spanish, German, French] Interview with Ed Holt on Global South: Governments in wealthy, first world countries should not ignore the plight of poorer nations battling the coronavirus or the disease will not be brought under control, global development experts have say.
The Global Challenge of the Novel Coronavirus
The World Financial Review, March 6, 2020. In January, China began a pioneering nattle against a deadly virus outbreak. Despite successful containment in China, international response has been lagging, which will compound human risks and economic damage globally. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock shows how China contained the virus, why international delays are compounding the global risks and what are the likely economic impact scenarios in major economies in the 1st and 2nd quarter.
Politicization Compounds Virus Risks in US
China-US Focus, March 3, 2020. As the Trump White House has sought to politicize the virus outbreaks, vital time has been lost and collateral damage is likely to haunt the administration. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock outlines the early mistakes of the Trump administration in outbreak management.
Odd Battle Against WHO COVID-19 War
The World Financial Review, Feb 17, 2020. Countries outside China have not sent adequate case reports to WHO in time, while media has suffered an ‘infodemic.’ Instead of battling COVID-19, WHO was targeted as international coverage has relied on the selective bias.
Toward Coronavirus Turnaround?
China Daily, Feb 10, 2020. There are now over 40,200 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide. And yet, there is something else going on behind the reported figures, something that may allow a sense of cautious optimism.
China's Struggle Against Coronavirus
China Daily Jan 31, 2020/ The World Financial Review, The Manila Times/ Feb 3, 2020. Chinese government has used strong measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock shows how the new risks surfaced, despite China's increasing capabilities. He presents estimates of human and economic costs, and impact scenarios in China. With the trade war, China has had to cope with a series of low-probability (time, place, sequence) but high-impact bio-threats.
EU Sleep-Walking into Iran Disaster?
The European Financial Review, Jan. 20, 2020. Iran charges Brussels for serving US interests in the Middle East. The accusations are the net effect of Europe’s failure to protect the nuclear deal, amid Trump’s auto tariff threat. US credibility in the region has plunged. Brussels should avoid following in the footprints.
Taal Eruption and Climate Change
China Daily/The Manila Times, Jan 13, 2020. he Philippine Taal eruption may reflect new risks. With accelerating climate change, more frequent eruptions could prove likely over time, while the US exit from the Paris Agreement will accelerate climate risks in the coming years.
Trump's Dangerous Iran Escalation
The World Financial Review, Jan. 13, 2020.
The assassination of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani by the Trump administration reflects decades of regime change efforts that have taken a perilous turn. In addition to the destabilized Iran, policy mistakes could push the global economy into a synchronized contraction in 2020.
Trump Tariffs Harm US Trade Deficit
China Daily, Oct 31, 2019. Since 2018, Trump's trade wars have made US trade deficit only worse, while hurting the poorest economies the most and penalizing global prospects. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock shows how the Trump tariff wars have actually widened the US trade deficit, which used to amount to $40 billion monthly but is now closer to $60 billion.
Global U-Turn or Perfect Storm
South China Morning Post, Oct 22, 2019. Only 12 years ago, globalization peaked. Today, it is in the doldrums and the Trump trade wars have nullified the recovery. We are at a crossroads, where globalization may further stagnate or fall apart, warns Dr Steinbock. In the commentary, he takes a closer look at the fall of world trade and investment and the alarming refugee crises. He believes that we may have forgotten the devastating lessons of 1945.
Golden Week Exceeds Expectations
China Daily, Oct 10, 2019. In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations. In the lead column for China Daily, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at the holiday consumption, retail and tourism.
Why Did Senate Target EMs?
ASEAN News, Sept 30, 2019. The new Senate bill targeting the Philippines and some other countries – Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia - is fueled by controversial political and economic agendas that have caused turmoil since the 1980s. Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the vulture financiers behind the Senate provisions.
Rearmament or Joint Exploration?
The Manila Times, Sept 16, 2019. President Duterte’s joint exploration framework with China is a historical breakthrough. But since it has potential to de-escalate tensions over time, it is opposed by those interests that prefer rearmament, even if that would lead to a split of Southeast Asia and new nuclearization. Dr Steinbock stresses the importance of peaceful solutions that support stability and ASEAN's regional economic integration.
The Interests of Corruption
Le Monde Diplomatique, September 2019.
US Tariffs, China and African Future
China-US Focus, August 29, 2019. In the coming months, some of the worst collateral damage of US tariff wars will occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The adverse impact is likely to be aggravated by US protectionism, which shuns economic integration in Africa.
African Swine Fever in China/Asia
FX Street (UK), August 25, 2019. The costly and deadly African swine fever is penalizing food security in China and more than half a dozen Asian countries. Despite the official ASF story, the virus has been used as a bio-weapon in the past. The suppression of such bio-threats requires multipolar cooperation.
PH Dengue Outbreak, Global Risks
The Manila Times, Aug. 19, 2019. In the future, dengue outbreaks will escalate worldwide. Due to tropical and socio-economic conditions, climate change (and covert biological efforts), dengue can only be contained through multipolar cooperation. Dr Steinbock outlines the conventional dengue narrative, and the covert dengue history. due to tropical and socio-economic conditions, climate change the geographic scope of dengue fever, its economic costs and severity will escalate in the future.
Dollar, Yuan and Currency Wars
Expresso (Portugal), August 10, 2019.
Dr Steinbock's interview with Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues of Expresso, the Portuguese weekly newspaper of reference.
Trump's 2 Miscalculations in 1 Week
China Daily, August 12, 2019. First, President Trump undermined trade talks in Shanghai. Then US Treasury declared China a “currency manipulator.” The miscalculations will prove costly in the coming trade and currency wars.
China and Global Growth
Sputnik News (Russia), August 5, 2019
Tariff Damage, US, China in H2 2019
China Daily, Aug 3, 2019. In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.
New Working Paper, July 2019. The Trump administration's new, muscular Indo-Pacific strategy has been privatized by corporations, defense contractors, foreign governments. From the 2049 scheme to the Project 2049 Institute and Armitage International, to Indo-Pacific networks and the Taiwan nexus, these efforts stem from Pentagon think-tank in the 1980s. They also share dark associations with the Vietnam War and Iran-contra debacle, Afghanistan, the BCCI bank, drugs, 9/11, terrorism and Taiwan.
Despite Truce, US Damage Spreading
China Daily, July 2, 2019. During the G20 summit, China and US agreed to re-start the trade talks. While the US trade war is slowing China’s growth, the collateral damage is now spreading in the US economy. Dr Steinbock examines the limited impact on China, the broader impact on US industries and economy.
Global Prospects Fading
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), June 20, 2019. Dr Steinbock warns that, compared to pre-2008 crisis levels, world economic growth has plummeted by half and is at risk of a long-term, hard-to-reverse stagnation. Returning to global integration and multilateral reconciliation could dramatically change the scenario. He presents four scenarios that he has monitored since 2016. The world economy is shifting toward the most adverse one.
Trump's Yuan Plaza Accord Folly
China Daily, May 21, 2019. Recent US media reports claim China may depreciate its renminbi to cope with shrinking exports. Yet, economic realities are precisely the reverse. In this op-ed, Dr Steinbock looks at Trump tariffs' impact on Chinese and Asian currencies, tariff wars’ coming collateral damage in the US, and Trump's futile quest for a renminbi Plaza Hotel Accord.
US-Sino Futures, Global Consequences
China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, May 2019 (Online/Summer-Issue)
With high growth rates during the past two decades and the largest trade surplus with the United States, China is the primary target of the U.S. trade war efforts. Tariffs are the first shot in bilateral tensions that are multilateralizing and injuring global economic integration, coupled with ever more intense technology competition.
Chinese Living Standard, Global Hope
China Daily, May 5, 2019. As living standard rises in China, its global contribution continues to increase. And that means potential for growth, poverty reduction and prosperity in emerging and developing world - new hope.
US Executive Power, Global Impacts
ConsortiumNews, May 6, 2019. In the interwar period, the failure of German democracy paved way to a global nightmare. At the time, Carl Schmitt, a shrewd political scientist, developed his notion of the 'state of exception' and unitary power to account for the power transition. In his commentary, Dr Steinbock uses these concepts to account for the lure of imperial presidency and emergency powers in peaceful conditions. He expects US-Sino trade wars to morph into technology wars.
US Iran Plans in Double-Bind
China-US Focus, May 3, 2019. Starting in May, the White House hopes to drive Iran’s oil exports close to zero. However, the destabilization may prove counterproductive and cause long-term damage to the United States. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at the implications of the U.S. three-step destabilization effort, the obstacles to the regime change ploy and the likely global repercussions. "Despite its vocal threats, the Trump White House is in a double-bind," he concludes.
Toward Japan's End-Game
South China Morning Post, May 1, 2019. As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the impact of Abenomics, risky monetary policy, and the OECD's odd austerity solutions to Japan's challenges.
New Trade Wars Falling Global Growth
Talk Markets, April 15, 2019. From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Prospects
Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the state of US-Sino trade talks, the trade wars' next targets, and why these wars will not resolve US deficits but will erode global prospects.
Public Agendas, Private Gains
The Manila Times / China-US Focus, April 8, 2019.
In the contested ICC and South China Sea issues, there are increasing concerns about public agendas fueled by private interests. Former PH Foreign Secretary del Rosario's think-tank and its many bedfellows are a case in point. Dr Steinbock identifies the key characters in these organizations and takes a closer look at their interest conflicts and energy reserves, bilateral alliances, links among think-tanks, governments and moneymakers.
Premier Li's China 2019 Work Report
China Daily, March 5, 2019. Despite U.S. trade wars, China will stick to its growth target and fiscal easing in the short-term, deleveraging in the medium-term and rebalancing in the long-term. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock will take closer look at the new growth target, foreign investment legislation and IPRs, turning financial tides, as well as Gallup's report about China's leadership gaining global approval.
The Looming UK Brexit Mess
The FX Street, March 4, 2019. After the misguided referendum three years ago, the Brexit end game is about to begin. In the UK, it means political turmoil and fiscal erosion. Moreover, global growth prospects will not remain immune to turmoil in the world’s fifth largest economy. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the political fallout, the misguided calculations by former PM David Cameron and current PM Theresa May, and the expected economic fallout.
A Postcard from Malaysia
Seeking Alpha, Feb 25, 2019. Not so long ago, Malaysia was set to lose years of economic progress. Today, following the re-imposition of economic discipline, the country is almost back on track. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the Najib regression, Mahathir's fiscal consolidation, Anwar Ibrahim's expected rule, the return to robust growth and efforts to prepare for future economic contingencies.
Lunar New Year Sales Defy Doomsayers
China Daily, Feb 22, 2019. According to some international observers, the Lunar New Year sales indicate a plunge in Chinese consumption. Economic realities tell a different story. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the shift in Chinese retail sales and the ongoing rebalancing toward consumption and innovation, which he concludes 'remains on track.'
Quest to Undermine Development Banks
China-US Focus, Feb 12, 2019. In the postwar era, the multilateral development banks were created to facilitate global trade. Today, they are ‘America First’ targets. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the unilateral record of David Malpass, President Trump's nominee for the next president of the World Bank; recent unilateralist shifts in the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and the Trump administration's effort to unilateralize the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Myth of PH's Collapsed Labor Market
The Manila Times, Feb 11, 2019. According to research group IBON, the Philippine labor market has collapsed. Rappler concurs. Forbes agrees. But what’s the economic reality? In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at rising employment and declining unemployment in the Philippines. He concludes that politically motivated frictions cannot suppress positive structural trends.
Darker Clouds over Europe
DifferenceGroup, Feb 4, 2019. Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the end of the region's expansionary cycle and rise of its political fragmentation, monetary and institutional uncertainty. Despite economic erosion, Europe remains a global actor but it needs a political rethink.
The World Financial Review, Nov-Dec, 2018. The print version of Dr Steinbock's cover story has been released. The share of US dollar in international payments is disproportionate relative to America’s eroding global position and depends on international goodwill that Washington is shunning. US dollar is changing from a safe haven to a safe house that’s costly and vulnerable. The end of America’s “exorbitant privilege” looms in the horizon. [for the full cover story, please click the image]
Chinese Reforms Will Stay the Course
China Daily, Dec. 18, 2018. After four decades of reforms and opening, China is accelerating the transition to post-industrial society. In this briefing, Dr Steinbock offers his assessment of the 40-year anniversary speech of President Xi Jinping on of Chinese reforms and opening-up policies. Dr Steinbock focuses on China's four major transitions, the trade war, markets, and the role of the Communist Party.
Weaker Consensus Rising Climate Risk
Syndicated, Dec 16, 2018. As the UN climate conference concluded in Katowice, Poland, with the expected dissension, efforts to contain global climate change are weakening at the worst historical moment. Emerging and developing economies will pay much of the bill.
Global Economy After Trump-Xi Truce
China Daily, Dec 3, 2018. As observers hoped, the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in the Buenos Aires G20 Summit resulted in a timeout of sorts. The devil is in the details.
World Trade Organization At Risk
China-US Focus, Nov 16, 2018. In the past two years, the Trump administration has started trade wars against China and its major partners. Without united opposition by advanced and emerging economies, the next target will be the WTO. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the historical shift of the U.S. toward protectionism and against the WTO. He takes a look at how the 2016 debacle over China's market-economy-status paved the way for US tariffs and toward "a world without the WTO."
Corruption Costs in Philippines
The Manila Times, Nov 5, 2018. The recent $200 million customs debacle may be just a tip of the iceberg. Due to illicit financial flows, Philippines has lost almost $10 billion annually. Tax evasion may be as costly. In this status quo, only a fully independent anti-graft campaign can succeed.
Toward 'America First' World Trade
South China Morning Post, Oct 25, 2018. The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dr Steinbock. In this commentary, he assesses the USMCA economic and geopolitical impact not just on the old NAFTA deal, but on US-South America, US-EU, and US-Asia trade agreements.
Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb
Consortiumnews, Oct 16, 2018. In the quest to change Israel's very nature, the Netanyahu government is pushing Palestinians to an edge, with the support of the Trump White House. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock looks at the unsettling parallels between living standards between blacks in apartheid South Africa and Palestinians in Occupied Territories, the Netanyahu effort to undermine Israeli constitution, and 50 years of missed warnings.
Trade War To Derail Global Recovery?
China-US Focus, Oct 1, 2018. As the international community is becoming more aware of the threat the U.S.-Sino trade war poses to global growth, what was originally a bilateral tariff conflict is spreading across regions. Dr Steinbock shows several scenarios on how global trade war could derail global recovery.
How USD Penalizes Emerging Asia
Talk Markets, Sept. 24, 2018. Foreign exchange rates in emerging markets have suffered significant damage against US dollar, including Asia’s high-growth economies (India, Indonesia, Philippines). Is the severity of the damage justified?
Steel Men Behind US Trade War
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War
The World Financial Review, Sept 14, 2018.
In few months, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. Who are the policymakers behind this reversal. What is their agenda? And why is steel their common denominator?
GJIA: Trading the Global Future
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Aug. 20 - Sept 13, 2018. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs - a major US journal on international relations - has published Dr Steinbock's three-part series on "Trading the Global Future." It presents three arguments against the Trump administration's US-Sino Tariff Wars - bad timing, bad policies, and bad consequences. In the last part, he also outlines three possible outline scenarios - from costly bilaterally to very costly globally.
U-Turn Or Perfect Storm?
The World Financial Review, September 10, 2018. A decade ago, globalization peaked. Today, it remains in the doldrums. Consequently, the Trump trade wars take place at a historical moment, when globalization may further stagnate or even fall apart. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at world investment, trade, finance and migration, in light of the Trump tariff wars. It is based on his global economic briefing that has triggered substantial debate.
Is the BRIC Future On Track?
The World Financial , July 24, 2018. Even amid trade wars, the large emerging BRIC economies remain positioned to surpass the large advanced economies (G6) in about 15 years, while China's economy is likely to prove larger than that of the US by the late 2020s. In this highly-anticipated commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the growth trajectories of the BRICs. He concludes that China and India are on track, but that Russia and Brazil have been penalized by political turmoil and external efforts.
Int'l Media Undervalue Chinese Bonds
China-US Focus, July 12, 2018. Criticism is typical of vibrant international media. Yet, prejudiced biases in financial matters have the potential to harm investors worldwide. The Chinese bond market is a case in point. Not only is China’s bond market growing explosively, but it has become diversified and provides broad investment options to both Chinese and foreign investors.
Obrador's Mexican Triumph
ConsortiumNews (US), July 1, 2018. For decades, the specter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has haunted Mexico’s ruling elites. After July 1, his coalition triumph - after years of contested elections - could change the country’s domestic, regional, even international policies. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at Mexico's failure to sustain its BRIC potential in the neoliberal Calderón and Nieto years, contested elections and the dramatic rise of the Obrador coalition.
Path to Peace in Korean Peninsula
China Daily, June 14, 2018. The new Trump-Kim joint agreement could prove a promising ‘memorandum of understanding.’ However, it is not just about denuclearization; it should also be about peace and U.S. withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.
New Advanced World: G6 Minus G1
The World Financial Review, June 8, 2018. The G7 Summit is split between the United States and six other major advanced economies. President Trump’s unipolar economic and strategic doctrines are undermining US alliances, world trade – and America itself.
ShangriLa Arms Race Follow the Money
China-US Focus, June 7, 2018. As the Trump administration seeks to boost arms sales in Asia, the Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted annually by UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), is morphing into a marketing arm of Western arms exporters in Asia. But how are arms exports pivoting to emerging Asia? What are the trends in these arms imports? Following money takes us from the Shangri-La Dialogue to General Dynamics, arms-exports rivalries and public-private moral hazards.
Trump's Effort at Iran Regime Change
DifferenceGroup May 13, 2018. Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal was the wrong decision in the wrong time. China and Russia will stand behind the nuclear agreement, but will EU defend it? Dr Steinbock examines the regime change plan and its key actors, the new and possible US sanctions, the money and names behind the controversial terror network MEK, and the likely US effort to undermine EU-Iran ties.
From Trumped Equities to Gold
Seeking Alpha May 5, 2018. Despite misguided economic policies and rising geopolitical tensions, the long market expansion has prevailed. But times may be changing. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the drastic increases in US sovereign debt and geopolitical tensions around the world, unease in the markets and gold fluctuations since the Cold War, as well as short-term and secular trends in gold prices.
How Chaos Capitalists Short Nations
China Daily, April 23, 2018. Since the 1980s, chaos capitalists have been undermining the progress of emerging economies. Under the pretext of “efficient markets,” they seek to exploit real or perceived weaknesses. Dr Steinbock examines the interplay of shorting and dominant media, how James Chanos got China wrong and how other chaos capitalists, including George Soros and Paul Singer, exploit private capital to destabilize China and Asian economies, Argentina and Peru, Nigeria and South Africa.
Compromised Corruption Index
South China Morning Post, March 16, 2018. The conventional view is that advanced economies have subdued corruption, which burdens mainly emerging countries. An alternative view is that dominant corruption indices are biased against emerging economies. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, its methodological bias, internal divides, the exclusion of the private sector and illicit capital flows from corruption analysis.
Petrodollar Versus Petroyuan
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, January 18, 2017. In the late 20th century, US petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. If the former grew on the back of postwar growth in the advanced economies, the latter is fueled by industrialization in emerging and developed economies.
What Really Happens in Iran?
China-US Focus, Jan. 15, 2018. Iran’s recent volatility reflects a US effort to undermine the nuclear accord as Iran is increasingly looking toward the East. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the US struggle for new sanctions and regime change, Iran's quest for economic stabilization and the shift toward the East.
The Way to the 'New Cold War'
Difference Group, January 8, 2017. Despite continued nuclear threats, all US postwar presidents have failed to reset relations with Russia. Why? In this commentary, Dr Steinbock argues that, it is the so-called Wolfowitz Doctrine that is behind the huge failure to reset the US-Russia relations. The path to the New Cold War was paved with the Bush-Clinton "shock therapy," President George W. Bush's NATO enlargement and nuclear primacy, Obama sanctions and Trump reversals.
Toward "Nuclear Winter"?
DifferenceGroup, Dec 25, 2017. Reportedly, Washington is planning for a military attack on North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program. Dr Steinbock assesses the probability for nuclear escalation, scenarios for "nuclear winter" effects and devastation. Even a regional nuclear confrontation could have massive global cooling consequences with the associated collateral damage around the world. As a result, all efforts to resolve the Korean challenges should be subject to extreme caution.
Eclipse of US Free Trade Legacies
South China Morning Post, December 18, 2017. Recently, all major US free trade deals in North America, Latin America and Asia Pacific have fallen under fire. As American legacy in free trade is dimming, there is a new opportunity for real free trade in Asia Pacific. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the erosion of US free trade legacy in North America (NAFTA), Latin America (FTAA) and Asia Pacific (TPP). The new status quo has created an opportunity for truly free trade in Asia Pacific.
The Trump IP War Against China
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, November 14, 2017. In recent weeks, intellectual property (IP) disputes have caused friction between Washington and Beijing. Will that friction spark a global trade war? In his commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at contradictory views on Chinese IP, the post-hearings state of Sino-US IP relations, the US IP Commission's biased advocacy role, and the historical timing of the IP friction.
China's New Leadership
The World Financial Review, Oct. 26, 2017. After the 19th Congress, Xi’s China is preparing for a new roadmap domestically and internationally. This is Dr. Dan Steinbock’s in-depth analysis of China’s critical changes - new leadership, grand strategy, economic and industrial policies - that will shape the world economy until 2022 - and beyond.
Picking the Right New Fed Chief
The World Financial Review, October 16, 2017. In a commentary released 2 weeks ago, Dr Steinbock introduced all viable Fed candidates, but suggested that Jerome Powell might be the final winner. He argued that Trump's appointment will be dictated by considerations of continuity and the need for lower interest rates and slower rate hikes, which are in line with his presidential agenda, particularly the proposed $1 trillion infrastructure plan.
Ratings Agencies' Double Standards
South China Morning Post, Oct. 22, 2017. Recently, credit ratings agencies cut China’s rating. Oddly enough, several advanced economies enjoy significantly higher credit ratings than China, even though their leverage ratios remain significantly worse. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock looks at China's leverage, advanced economies' debt and the ratings agencies' double standards.
Struggle for Bolivia's Future
TalkMarkets, October 12, 2017. While middle class Bolivians are demonstrating against the incumbent president’s bid to extend term limits, the country is thriving after a decade of progress under Evo Morales. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at a decade of progress under Morales, the shift from neoliberal policies to inclusive growth and Bolivia's future trajectories.
The Great Shift of Globalization
China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Summer 2017. In this 8,300 word in-depth analysis for the prestigious CQISS, Dr Steinbock analyzes the current state of globalization, including the eclipse of the US postwar trade regime and the rise of 'south-to-south' trade (esp. OBOR). He concludes that while global economic integration was initiated by advanced West in the 20th century, it will be completed by emerging economies in the 21st century (click image for full abstract).
The Rise of the Trans-Asian Axis
TalkMarkets, August 14, 2017. As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) marked its 50th anniversary, it faces old and new challenges, and a huge long-term opportunity. In the past, it was the transatlantic axis - the US and the four core EU economies of the UK, Germany, France and Italy - that drove global economic prospects. By 2050, it will be the trans-Asian axis - China, India, and the ASEAN - that will fuel global economy, politics and security.
Brexit Weakens UK's Hand With EU
The European Financial Review, June 6, 2017. Prime Minister May pushed for a snap election in June 2017 to strengthen her hand in the impending Brexit talks. In practice, she may have weakened her bargaining power, while fostering that of the EU.
G20: Overcoming Global Steel Crisis
Think 20 Dialogue (G20 Germany), April 25, 2017. In 2016, advanced economies accused China for steel overcapacity. Before the Hamburg Summit, similar charges have surfaced. Yet, the postwar era has witnessed two steel overcapacity crises. The current debate cannot afford to ignore the past lessons. In this commentary for the prestigious G20 Germany blog, Dr Steinbock assesses the current steel output situation, overcapacity crises and policy responses in 70s and today, and the right solutions.
Le-Penization of France
The World Financial Review, March 31, 2017. In a new cover story, Dr Steinbock says that while media focuses on Emmanuel Macron as the savior of France, the real story is that Marine Le Pen's agenda has shifted the political landscape. Along with French economy, he looks at Macron's hidden financiers, Le Pen's agenda, Fillon's public debacle, and socialists Hamon and Mélenchon. To sustain the victory, the next president - most likely Macron in the 2nd round - must coopt Le Pen's agenda.
Time for African Economic Miracle
BusinessDay Nigeria, March 2, 2017. In the 20th century, Africa gained political independence but fell behind economic boom. In the 21st century, it is Africa’s turn – but not without stronger state and new external push. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock, like Justin Ifu Lin, advocates a new view of economic development, particularly to overcome illicit financial outflows, corruption and lawlessness in many emerging economies.
Why Are Pakistan's markets Soaring?
Global Times, December 21, 2016. During six decades of US aid, Pakistan’s living standards plunged. But in the past year, Asia’s largest frontier market delivered foretaste of its promise; with China’s support. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock's analyzes the forces behind Pakistan's recent market success, the eclipse of US-Pakistan military ties, Pakistan's economic development with China and the country's second historical effort of modernization.
The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy
The European Financial Review, December 7, 2016. The rise of anti-establishment Italy is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy. In this long essay, Dr Steinbock analyzes the end of an era in Italy and Europe; the coming developments; the rise of Beppe Grillo's M5S and radical right; Italy's banking crisis; and political fragmentation as the effect of the 1990s Tangentopoli and US 'strategy of tension.'
La fiesta del ‘súper dólar’
Forbes Mexico, 26 De Noviembre 2016. Ayer el portal de China Daily publicó un artículo de Dan Steinbock titulado Dollar, not yuan, poses biggest risk to world (El dólar, no el yuan, representa el mayor riesgo para el mundo), en el que el autor considera como mera ‘volatilidad de corto plazo’ la devaluación que ha sufrido la divisa china, y que la tiene hoy día en su nivel más bajo frente al dólar desde 2008.
Trump Trade with EU and Asia
EUobserver, Nov 17, 2016. After the Trump triumph, the current US free trade plans with the EU and Asia are suspended. New and revised deals must fulfill the Trump administration’s requirements. In this highly-anticipated commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the fate of US free trade deals with Europe (TTIP) and Asia (TTP), Trump trade scenarios and China's new free-trade initiatives in Asia Pacific.
Barriers to China-India Trade?
Economic Times India, Oct. 28, 2016. In an interview with Rahul Sachitanand, Dr Steinbock talks about Chinese-Indian trade and potential bans and boycotts in India. "Economically, it would hurt India more than China... Politically, it would slow progress of bilateral relations and, strategically, it would foster the perception in Beijing that Indian
trade policy is subject to the US pivot in Asia, as the US and India remain the largest
sources of trade remedy probes against Chinese goods.”
From Renzi's Referendum to Italexit
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Aug 8, 2016. After Brexit tensions, Italy is defying Brussels to bail out troubled banks and preparing for constitutional referendum in October. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to achieve adequate support, economic destabilization will shift from the UK to Italy, which could pave way to the rise of radical right and left, even the return of Berlusconi's successors. This is Dr Steinbock's last travel report about Europe's 'summer of discontent.'
The Secret of the Swiss Miracle
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, August 4, 2016. Montreux-Lausanne-Geneva. In his new commentary on 'Europe’s Summer of Discontent,' Dr Steinbock argues that, despite Europe’s crisis turmoil, the Swiss growth engine seems even more resilient than before – perhaps not least because it has embraced the European Union, but not the euro. He examines Swiss franc and monetary policy, the financial cleanup, economic resilience, low unemployment and multiculturalism.
Brexit Uncertainty, Volatility, Risk
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, June 20, 2016. The UK’s EU referendum is too tight to call, which will virtually ensure protracted economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. The worst has already happened. In this essay, Dr Steinbock presents two obvious referendum outcome scenarios, two more probable scenarios, and a brief on the final outcome in view of the UK's democracy deficit. The result? More uncertainty, more volatility, more risk.
French Endgame About Labor Reforms
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, June 13, 2016. The French government wants structural reforms, the unions don’t; nor does the majority of the French. The endgame has begun. In his Parisian commentary, Dr Steinbock examines, French struggle for reforms, France's secular stagnation, and labor aristocracy's neoconservative policies. He expects French turmoil to broaden. This commentary is the first of his travel reports about Europe's 'summer of discontent.'
China, Robotics and Development
Shanghai Daily, May 12, 2016. As advanced manufacturing is about to accelerate in China, the rules of economic development will change across the world. Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at manufacturing innovation from the US to China and the potential impact of robotics on economic development.
President Duterte, the US and China
CNN, May 11, 2016. How could Duterte’s presidency affect U.S.-Philippines relations? The next likely Philippines President will be more independent in critical economic, political and military decisions - decisions that will also shape Southeast Asia’s future.
After Global Commodities Super-Cycle
Shanghai Daily, May 5, 2016. While cyclical challenges remain tough in global commodities, structural realities look more tolerable. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at investing after global commodities super-cycle. He analyzes the eclipse of the cycle and explains why it does not mean the 'end' of commodities investing.
Iran's Economy: New US Hurdles?
Mehr News Agency, Iran, April 30, 2016. Interview with news correspondent Lachin Rezaiian of Mehr News Agency of Iran.Today, the Iran nuclear deal is effective. Yet, Iran’s efforts to attract foreign investment and accelerate growth and prosperity face new hurdles, which seem to reflect Washington’s efforts to dent the agreement.
How Can Brazil Revive Its Growth?
The World Financial Review, Feb-Mar 2016. Only a few years ago, Brazil exemplified the BRIC dream of rapid growth. Now it is coping with its longest recession, loss of confidence, possibly a lost decade. Dan Steinbock explains what happened, and how and when Brazil could restore to its growth. In this longer commentary, he takes a closer look at the Lula boom era, the economic plunge during the Rousseff era, Brazil's diminished global prospects, and the Petrobras corruption scandal.
O novo plano quinquenal da China
Expresso, Nov. 7, 2015. In Portugal's leading business daily, Dr Steinbock examines China's new five-year plan. The brief was re-published by the Portuguese government. A desaceleração do crescimento e a duplicação dos padrões de vida favorecem o reequilíbrio da economia - se a geopolítica se mantiver positiva... A velha China das fábricas, investimentos e exportações está a desaparecer. A nova China dos serviços, inovação e consumo vai emergindo.
China's Challenging 13th 5-Year Plan
Voice of America, Oct 22, 2015. Chinese authorities are expected to unveil details about the country’s next five-year plan. Interviewed by VOA's Joyce Huang, Dr Steinbock says that the key to success is to time the reforms right. “If you move too fast, you risk additional unemployment, bad loans and social disharmony; if you move too slow, you will contribute to a false sense of stability, creeping asset bubbles and decreased growth over time."
Finland's Economic Stagnation.
EUobserver, April 18, 2015. A sense of crisis has finally arrived in Helsinki but much precious time has been missed. The past record of solid economic growth has stalled with the economy in recession for three out of the last five years.
Japan's Monetary Exhaustion
South China Morning Post, September 21, 2016. Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock. The BOJ has already purchased 48% of Japan's government bonds and is a top-10 owner of 90% of Nikkei 225 stocks, even as sovereign debt hovers around 250% of GDP. In the highly-anticipated commentary he shows how and when the crisis will hit the ceiling.
China's Big Debt Swap
Foreign Affairs, March 18, 2015. China’s GDP growth rate is decelerating, due to international headwinds, property markets and local debt. Concurrently, the reforms are accelerating, as evidenced by the great swap deal.
Decline of US Military Innovation.
The Project Syndicate, Jan 27, 2015. Despite America’s superior military capabilities, U.S. defense innovation is at a challenging crossroads.
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