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E-book/pdf by early October; paperback by Mid-November

The Beijing Declaration: After the Haniyeh Assassination

China-US Focus, Jul 31, 2024. In just two years, China has facilitated a breakthrough deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran; and Fatah and Hamas. But after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, prospects for peace are overshadowed by escalation as the Middle East prepares for the next explosion.

The secret US anti-vax scandal in PH is boiling

The Manila Times, July 29, 2024. As the Pentagon has tacitly acknowledged its secret anti-vax campaign, a scandal is simmering. Why did requested witnesses avoid Senator Marcos’s hearing? Does Manila have a legal recourse? Did the Pentagon campaign set the stage to the U-turn in US-Philippine military relations?

Protectionist measures are imposed by West to maintain bygone privileges

Global Times, June 26, 2024. GT reporter Qian Jiayin talked to Dan Steinbock, an expert on the multipolar world economy and the founder of the global consultancy Difference Group. Steinbock said he is confident in the future prospects of the Chinese economy, and without protectionist constraints, Chinese growth would be even higher. When its output potential is penalized for geopolitical reasons, that harms not just China but all countries that engage in trade and investment with China.

Dr Steinbock Joins Clarity Press Authors

Clarity Press, Inc. is a completely independent publishing company seeking to provide access to those ideas, trends and information which impact the progress of the world’s peoples toward a happier, better life. Clarity authors ride the cutting edge of global issues, addressing the core concerns facing humanity today, critiquing and countering the often fraudulent mainstream narratives with deep insights and documented analysis. (Click the image for Dr Steinbock's new Clarity book)

Bringing Vietnamese Counterinsurgency to the Philippines and South China Sea (Part I)

The World Financial Review, Apr 22, 2024. Trilateral militarization between the US, Japan and the Philippines has started, starting with maritime counterinsurgency, missiles and nuclearization. In the coming years, it will penalize development and unleash extraordinary uncertainty in the Philippines and Southeast Asia.

Integrated megapolises next stage of reform

China Daily, June 11, 2024. After record rapid urbanization, China is moving to the next stage with the development of integrated and coordinated multi-city clusters. The Yangtze River Delta region is a case in point.

Making or Breaking Finland’s Future: A Behind-the-façade Look at Finland After the 2024 Election

The World Financial Review, Feb 7, 2024. Since June 2023, Finland has been led by the most far-right government of its postwar history. The past economic success is past. NATO membership is increasing security costs and risks. Risks hover over and above the “last welfare state standing”. Dr Steinbock provides an in-depth analysis on the Finnish presidential race, huge strikes, NATO process, racism, economic erosion and the most far-right government since 1945. [for the story, click the image]

Dr Steinbock, January Columnist of The World Financial Review

The World Financial Review, Jan 9, 2024. TWFR is excited to unveil our January columnist, Dan Steinbock! "Dan Steinbock on the Multipolar World" encapsulates many global issues shaping our world today. Through incisive articles like "Displacing a Nation: What Led to (and Caused) the Gaza-Israel Catastrophe," "BRICS: Could a More Inclusive and Equitable Multipolar World Take Shape? An Interview with Dan Steinbock" and "China’s Consumption Recovery Fuels the Rise of the Global South" [click here]

DISPLACING A NATION What Led to (and Caused) the Gaza-Israel Catastrophe

The World Financial Review, Dec. 20. 2023 (Dec-Jan 2024). The Hamas-Israel War has devastated Gaza and displaced its people. It could result in expulsions in the West Bank over time. And if it escalates regionally, it will further penalize the dire global economic prospects. Dr Steinbock examines the extremist settler terror and missed opportunities of peace, longstanding ethnic cleansing and the effort to control huge offshore oil and gas reserves. Our humanity, he warns, is dying in Gaza.

BRICS: Could a More Inclusive and Equitable Multipolar World Take Shape? An interview

WGI World Geostrategic Insights, Dec 12, 2023. Recently, Dr Steinbock, an expert of the Global North and the Global South, was interviewed on the rise of the BRICS and the multipolar world by Marcello Iannarelli, editor in chief of World Geostrategic Insights (WGI). The in-depth interview was released by WGI on Dec. 12, 2023

Anwar Ibrahim Administration's First Year in Power

Focus Malaysia, Dec 12, 2023. Dr Steinbock interviewed by Massita Ahmad, Singapore Bureau Chief of Malaysian National News Agency (Bernama). In Dr Steinbock's view, "the positive reaction of the financial markets to the Madani government reflects perception that the new unity is seen as a stabilizing force. Malaysian efforts at inclusive growth offer important lessons to the West and the rest of Global South alike." [Click image for the interview]

Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development

China-US Focus, Nov 27, 2023. Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads. Dr Steinbock's commentary takes a closer look at DPP’s “American way”, the failed opposition unity; US arms sales and Taiwan’s escalating militarization; Taiwan’s double-whammy; and the path from politics of distraction to economic traps

China's Consumption Recovery Fuels Rise of Global South

China Daily, Nov 6, 2023. Launched in 2018, the China International Import Expo in Shanghai is an important barometer of consumption in China. Setting aside the international information warfare, China's consumption is strengthening. The Global South stands to benefit. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock also examines China's stimulus and infrastructure spending; boosting the least-developed economies; lethal headwinds of geopolitics; and unwarranted damage in the Global South.

What Led to the Gaza-Israel Catastrophe?

The World Financial Review, Oct 19, 2023. Dr Steinbock's analysis examines the Israeli far-right, the fall of the peace movement; the Kahane-inspired religious terror; the rise of US military aid and decline of Israeli labor; the interplay of Hamas and Netanyahu; the settlements and apartheid; US neoconservative effort at regional conflict with Iran; and the need for new multilateral diplomacy [click the WAFA image for the story]

Hamas-Israel War and 50 Years of Failed Military Policies

China-US Focus Oct 13. China Daily Oct 16, 2023. Despite massive aid, US policies have failed to achieve peace in Israel, West Bank and Gaza thus eroding US credibility in the region. Why did US policies fail? Could Chinese policies contribute to peace?

[Click the image for the story]

The Coming BRICS Currency Diversification

China-US Focus, Aug 5, 2023. The pressure toward the diversification of world currency reserves is longstanding. It intensified after 2008, but has escalated since 2022. It is a prime topic in the next BRICS Summit that’s likely to further intensify the trend.

"Dr Steinbock über eine neue Weltordnung und die Rolle der Brics-Staaten dabei"

Dr Steinbock's highly topical interview by Simon Zeise, business editor of Berliner Zeitung. Among other things, the interview centers on the potential of BRICS currencies and the implications of the "weaponization" of the US dollar. Based in Berlin, the Berliner Zeitung is one of the largest dailies in Germany and the largest in Berlin. To read the interview, click this image.

Myths of China's Global Inflation, Deflation Risks

China Daily Global, July 17, 2023. In early spring, international pundits portrayed China’s reopening as a global inflation risk. Today, it is depicted as a global deflation risk. In reality, both narratives are myths. Despite international headwinds, China’s rebound is strengthening. - Dr Steinbock is a featured contributor of China Daily.

The Nuclear Plan to Decapitate Russia and China (and the Planet)

The European Financial Review July 14, 2023. Even as the whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg of the Pentagon Papers passed away, his second secret remains hushed. Until 2017, it was not known that Ellsberg also secretly copied files on Pentagon's nuclear plans to “decapitate” Russia, China and our planet.

Militarization could erode the economic futures of PH and ASEAN

The Manila Times, Feb. 20, 2023. The Marcos Jr. government is no longer a bystander between the US and China. The risk is that it is sleepwalking into military and nuclear minefields, while fragmenting the ASEAN.

The Unwarranted Ukraine Proxy War: A Year Later

The World Financial Review, Jan. 27, 2023. In this 5,000-word analysis, Dr Steinbock explains why Russia’s economy has remained resilient; how media has suppressed the dark realities of destruction and Ukraine’s devastated economy; how the war is undermining the West’s economic performance; how the US and international war funding is budgeted to support hostilities until late 2020s; and the disastrous impact on global economy, major economies, and the Global South (for the story click the image)

US Big Defense, the Only Winner of the Ukraine Proxy War

Antiwar.com, Feb. 15, 2023. Not only do these global military contractors arm Ukraine, but they stand to benefit from the re-militarization of Western Europe, Japan, and the new NATO members.

The Long-Term Economic Implications of the Ukraine War

The American Conservative, January 4, 2023. The protracted conflict and human suffering in Ukraine are predicated on massive US military aid, which is transforming the ailing country into a bankrupt failed state. Dr Steinbock wrote his commentary as a "sequel" to Col. (ret.) Douglas Macgregor's "Washington Is Prolonging Ukraine's Suffering" (TAC, Dec. 20, 2022). Macgregor focuses on the geopolitical implications. Dr Steinbock examines the long-tern economic consequences. [click image for story]

U.S. Big Defense and Australia’s Nuclear Crossroads

China-US Focus, Nov. 15, 2022. Not so long ago, Australia was known for its booming economy and balanced foreign policy. Today its economy is stagnating, while the US Big Defense casts a dark shadow over its foreign policy - as evidenced by nuclear escalation.

Brazil 2022: Lula’s Comeback Looms, Unless…

TalkMarkets (UK), Oct 3, 2022. Not so long ago, Brazil’s BRIC economy soared as working people and the poor were able to join the labor force and formal economy. In just years, a “soft coup” and far-right president derailed Lula’s miracle. What next?

The Global Risk of Weaponization in Semiconductors

China Daily, Aug 29, 2022. On August 9, President Biden signed the CHIPS Act. Along with the proposed “CHIP-4 alliance” (US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), it is a prelude in a lethal effort to weaponize the supply chains in the global ICT sector.

“Countering” China Would Pave the Way to Global Depression

China-US Focus, Aug 26, 2022. In its pursuit for unipolar primacy, the Biden administration is risking the economic stability of China, the West, emerging Asia, and the futures of the Global South.

Global Risks Facing the Marcos Presidency

IDSI Center, July 12, 2022. Dr Steinbock was a key speaker in IDSI Center's webinar, with Prof. Bobby Tuazon, IDSI Director George Syi, Prof. Anna Malindog, and Paul Gutierrez. (click the IMAGE for the event).

Great Powers and Globalisation: Spotlight on the United States and China

Austrian National Bank (OeNB) and Austrian Federal Economic Chamber (WKÖ), June, 2022. In his contribution to the prestigious yearbook, Dr Steinbock warns that global economic prospects are being derailed. world trade, investment and migration, coupled with the unwarranted suffering of more than 100 million globally displaced. The yearbook features renowned authors from the OECD, European Commission, European Parliament, CEPS, HSBC and various universities. - CLICK the image for the article.

The Scott Horton Interview

The Scott Horton Show, June 27, 2022. Dr. Steinbock's interview by the legendary Scott Horton, host of AntiWar Radio and the editorial director of the non-interventionist news portal Antiwar.com. The interview draws from Dr Steinbock's "The Center of International Insecurity." The World Financial Review (UK), July-August 2022. For the interview, CLICK the image. For the analysis, see https://worldfinancialreview.com/the-centre-of-international-insecurity/

The Center of International Insecurity: Biden, CNAS/WestExec - Revolving Doors and Big Defense

The World Financial Review (UK), July-August 2022 (print/online). The Biden administration is no longer in charge of the White House. Relying on a network of think-tanks and corporate proxies, the Big Defense is. Takeaways: - Inflated China threat for more spending - Collusion with Big Defense. - Campbell's pivot to insecurity. - From CNAS to WestExec and other corporate proxies. - The many bedfellows of Blinken and Sullivan. - Pentagon, Austin and private equity... (for TWFR, CLICK the image)

The Coming Marcos-Duterte Philippine Election Triumph

South China Morning Post, Apr. 28, 2022. The Philippine election is only days away. The highly popular president Duterte is likely to be succeeded by the Marcos campaign, which will build on his legacies. (Dr Steinbock projected the Marcos-Duterte triumph first in Dec. 2021.)

THE UNWARRANTED WAR

The World Financial Review, March 10, 2022. [for the analysis, click the image] The avoidable war that will penalize severely Ukraine, Russia, the US and the NATO, Europe, developing economies and the global economy. To Russia and Ukraine, the crisis is an existential issue. To the US and NATO, it’s a regime-change game. To Europe, it means the demise of stability – in the world economy, lost years (and that’s the benign scenario). But if the war was unwarranted, why did it happen?

The Tragedy of Ukraine’s Abyss

China-US Focus, Mar. 6, 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war was avoidable. Ukrainians despair for peace. Russia needs security. China offers development. But Blackwater, US, NATO and the far-right Ukrainian paramilitaries seek something very different.

US stagflation: The global risk of 2022

The World Financial Review, Jan. 17, 2022. Until recently, the US Fed ignored America’s soaring inflation. Due to its belated response, the consequent risks will penalize the ailing global recovery.

Dr Steinbock's Interview on China's 20-Year WTO Anniversary

The China News Service, Dec. 14, 2021. Recently, Dan Steinbock gave an exclusive interview to China News Service and its "W.E Talk" column. In the hard-hitting interview, he analyzed the changes China has brought to the world economy since its accession to the WTO 20 years ago.

The Contradictions of the “Biden Doctrine”

The World Financial Review, Oct. 25, 2021. With its internal contradictions, the “Biden Doctrine” is fostering Trump-style China wars, while its military overreach is paving the way to debt crises.

US Antitrust Against the Big Tech

World Financial Review, Sep. 28, 2021. In the United States, the executive branch, courts and the Congress are moving to restrict the dominance of the US tech giants. In the 1960s, the US economy was driven by the automobile sector's "Big Three"－General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. Today, it is fueled by Big Tech. In the past decade, Big Tech has revolutionized the internet economy, but allegedly also abused its dominance.

Requiem for Wars After 9/11 and Future Wars

The World Financial Review, Sep 11, 2021. FOR days, international media have been promoting the 20-year anniversary of the terror attacks of Sept.11, 2001. That day, I was supposed to have a meeting at the World Trade Center in the afternoon. But I was late.

As the Fed Preps for Tapering, Expect More Volatility in Asia

Qrius (formerly Indian Economist), Aug 31, 2021. As the Fed preps for tapering, expect more volatility in Asia Economic recovery has proved elusive in Asia, thanks to the West’s pandemic mismanagement and vaccine inequality. The Fed’s impending tapering will add to the woes.

Apple amid US Cold War against China

Global Briefing, June 25, 2021. America's most valuable $2 trillion company is no longer immune to US geopolitics. Apple's global success is an anomaly to the protectionist Trump-Biden administrations - for all the wrong reasons.

Genocide Politics: The Zenz-Xinjiang Case

The European Financial Review, Jul-Aug 2021. The Trump and Biden administrations have initiated an unsubstantiated genocide case against China. It has been opposed by White House's own top legal experts. With its dark roots, genocide politics mocks real genocides. Dr Steinbock concludes: "When the word 'genocide' is exploited without a solid legal basis, the very designation is politicized and diluted. That is an insult against the real victims and legacies of the Holocaust and other genocides."

How the World Press Freedom Index Was Politicized

The World Financial Review, May 17, 2021. For years, the press freedom index by the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has been widely quoted, even though its methodology is biased and RSF was long led by a white supremacist with a penchant for US-led regime change. Now RSF is targeting Asia.

COVID-19: Missed Opportunities, Or New Beginnings?

BRUNO KREISKY FORUM for International Dialogue, Vienna, Austria, Feb 19, 2021.  In a conversation with Ambassador Irene Giner-Reichl in Brazil, Dr Steinbock focused on the four missed opportunities in the struggle against COVID-19. "What we need is multilateral cooperation across all differences. It is moral, safer, and cheaper." The WHO's containment plans amount to a few billion dollars, he added: "It's a fraction of the $20+ trillion dollar pandemic relief." (For the video, click the image)

Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure

The World Financial Review, Feb 16, 2021. In the coming months, vaccine nationalism is likely to compound COVID-19 economic damage and penalize more lives. It reflects the utter failure of multilateralism. It is old colonialism in a new disguise.

US-China Reset Key To Brighter Global Economic Prospects

China Daily, Jan. 25, 2021. Unlike other major economies, China has rebounded, and its recovery is accelerating. All key indexes signal broad recovery. As China's structural reforms prevail, its financial integration with the global markets is accelerating. In 2021, China could account for over a third of world economic expansion. That contribution is critical, due to the devastating global economic contraction and lingering damage in lost lives and economic suffering.

The Dark Forces Behind American Insurrectionists

The World Financial Review, Jan. 18, 2021. The final goal of the mob of white supremacists who stormed the US Capitol may have involved assassinations of elected officials. Dr Steinbock identifies the insurrectionists’ bedfellows in the Trump administration and their infiltration of US law enforcement. He shows the big money behind the campaign finance of ultra-conservative politicians favored by the far-right. And he shows how the shrinking US middle class has given rise to these extremists.

RPEC: Why World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Matters

China Daily, November 16, 2020. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is an extraordinary achievement amid aggressive geopolitics, self-defeating trade wars, and accelerating global pandemic. It is also a leap toward a better future.

Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN Recovery

The Manila Times, Oct 18, 2020. In 2021, the return to growth in major ASEAN economies rests on the containment of COVID-19, structural growth and global outlook. Due to rising deficits, debt and political volatility, the recovery will be bumpy.

What Happened to EU Integrity with Philippines?

The European Financial Review, October 2020. Recently, EU Parliament adopted a resolution denouncing the state of human rights and press freedom in the Philippines under President Duterte. Yet, the resolution seems to rely on flawed data, political agendas and prejudicial bias.

The Tragedy of MORE Missed Opportunities

August 2020. Dr Steinbock's new report is the sequel of the first one (April). It focuses on the net effects of the belated responses by the major advanced economies: in addition to the past containment failures and failed crisis management, the more recent premature exits, new policy mistakes and the consequent collateral damage in all major income group economies. It was released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a major global think-tank (click the image for the report).

From Shenzhen’s Economic Miracle to Greater Bay’s Global Innovation

China Daily, August 26, 2020. Since the 1980s, China’s reforms and Special Economic Zones have sparked Shenzhen’s economic miracle, Guangdong’s industrial transformation and Greater Bay Area’s innovation engine. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock examines the origins of Shenzhen and GBA and explains why the region, as an economic engine, is already almost three times bigger than the US Silicon Valley.

From Trump’s TikTok Mess to Tech Cold War against China

China Daily, Aug 14, 2020. As the US economy is expanding trade wars, which will derail global recovery, the Trump White House is targeting Chinese innovators thus fostering US national champions under the pretext of ‘national security.

Tragedy of Missed Opportunities: COVID-19 Costs/Damages

Dr Steinbock's new report focuses on the COVID-19 human costs and economic damage. The global pandemic was not inevitable, as evidenced by the relatively successful containment by China and other early mobilizers. The US and the EU began full mobilization only in late March, 4-8 weeks later. Hence the huge human costs and massive economic damage. The report was released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, a major global think-tank.

Europe's Pandemic Dilemma

The European Financial Review, June-July 2020 (online May 20, 2020). In the ongoing battle against the global pandemic, belated responses will result in huge human costs and massive economic damage. In Europe, losses are climaxing in the 2nd quarter of 2020. [for the commentary, click this image]

Coronavirus Contraction in ASEAN

The Manila Times, Apr 20, 2020. After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.

COVID-19 Obligations: Rich and Poor Countries

Inter-Press Service News, March 16, 2020 [English, Spanish, German, French] Interview with Ed Holt on Global South: Governments in wealthy, first world countries should not ignore the plight of poorer nations battling the coronavirus or the disease will not be brought under control, global development experts have say.

Odd Battle Against WHO COVID-19 War

The World Financial Review, Feb 17, 2020. Countries outside China have not sent adequate case reports to WHO in time, while media has suffered an ‘infodemic.’ Instead of battling COVID-19, WHO was targeted as international coverage has relied on the selective bias.

EU Sleep-Walking into Iran Disaster?

The European Financial Review, Jan. 20, 2020. Iran charges Brussels for serving US interests in the Middle East. The accusations are the net effect of Europe’s failure to protect the nuclear deal, amid Trump’s auto tariff threat. US credibility in the region has plunged. Brussels should avoid following in the footprints.

Taal Eruption and Climate Change

China Daily/The Manila Times, Jan 13, 2020. he Philippine Taal eruption may reflect new risks. With accelerating climate change, more frequent eruptions could prove likely over time, while the US exit from the Paris Agreement will accelerate climate risks in the coming years.

Trump's Dangerous Iran Escalation

The World Financial Review, Jan. 13, 2020. The assassination of Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani by the Trump administration reflects decades of regime change efforts that have taken a perilous turn. In addition to the destabilized Iran, policy mistakes could push the global economy into a synchronized contraction in 2020.

Trump Tariffs Harm US Trade Deficit

China Daily, Oct 31, 2019. Since 2018, Trump's trade wars have made US trade deficit only worse, while hurting the poorest economies the most and penalizing global prospects. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock shows how the Trump tariff wars have actually widened the US trade deficit, which used to amount to $40 billion monthly but is now closer to $60 billion.

The Interests of Corruption

Le Monde Diplomatique, September 2019.

African Swine Fever in China/Asia

FX Street (UK), August 25, 2019. The costly and deadly African swine fever is penalizing food security in China and more than half a dozen Asian countries. Despite the official ASF story, the virus has been used as a bio-weapon in the past. The suppression of such bio-threats requires multipolar cooperation.

PH Dengue Outbreak, Global Risks

The Manila Times, Aug. 19, 2019. In the future, dengue outbreaks will escalate worldwide. Due to tropical and socio-economic conditions, climate change (and covert biological efforts), dengue can only be contained through multipolar cooperation. Dr Steinbock outlines the conventional dengue narrative, and the covert dengue history. due to tropical and socio-economic conditions, climate change the geographic scope of dengue fever, its economic costs and severity will escalate in the future.

Dollar, Yuan and Currency Wars

Expresso (Portugal), August 10, 2019. Dr Steinbock's interview with Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues of Expresso, the Portuguese weekly newspaper of reference.

Indo-Pacific, Project 49 and Taiwan

New Working Paper, July 2019. The Trump administration's new, muscular Indo-Pacific strategy has been privatized by corporations, defense contractors, foreign governments. From the 2049 scheme to the Project 2049 Institute and Armitage International, to Indo-Pacific networks and the Taiwan nexus, these efforts stem from Pentagon think-tank in the 1980s. They also share dark associations with the Vietnam War and Iran-contra debacle, Afghanistan, the BCCI bank, drugs, 9/11, terrorism and Taiwan.

Trump's Yuan Plaza Accord Folly

China Daily, May 21, 2019. Recent US media reports claim China may depreciate its renminbi to cope with shrinking exports. Yet, economic realities are precisely the reverse. In this op-ed, Dr Steinbock looks at Trump tariffs' impact on Chinese and Asian currencies, tariff wars’ coming collateral damage in the US, and Trump's futile quest for a renminbi Plaza Hotel Accord.

US-Sino Futures, Global Consequences

China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, May 2019 (Online/Summer-Issue) With high growth rates during the past two decades and the largest trade surplus with the United States, China is the primary target of the U.S. trade war efforts. Tariffs are the first shot in bilateral tensions that are multilateralizing and injuring global economic integration, coupled with ever more intense technology competition.

Chinese Living Standard, Global Hope

China Daily, May 5, 2019. As living standard rises in China, its global contribution continues to increase. And that means potential for growth, poverty reduction and prosperity in emerging and developing world - new hope.

US Executive Power, Global Impacts

ConsortiumNews, May 6, 2019. In the interwar period, the failure of German democracy paved way to a global nightmare. At the time, Carl Schmitt, a shrewd political scientist, developed his notion of the 'state of exception' and unitary power to account for the power transition. In his commentary, Dr Steinbock uses these concepts to account for the lure of imperial presidency and emergency powers in peaceful conditions. He expects US-Sino trade wars to morph into technology wars.

US Iran Plans in Double-Bind

China-US Focus, May 3, 2019. Starting in May, the White House hopes to drive Iran’s oil exports close to zero. However, the destabilization may prove counterproductive and cause long-term damage to the United States. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at the implications of the U.S. three-step destabilization effort, the obstacles to the regime change ploy and the likely global repercussions. "Despite its vocal threats, the Trump White House is in a double-bind," he concludes.

Toward Japan's End-Game

South China Morning Post, May 1, 2019. As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the impact of Abenomics, risky monetary policy, and the OECD's odd austerity solutions to Japan's challenges.

Public Agendas, Private Gains

The Manila Times / China-US Focus, April 8, 2019. In the contested ICC and South China Sea issues, there are increasing concerns about public agendas fueled by private interests. Former PH Foreign Secretary del Rosario's think-tank and its many bedfellows are a case in point. Dr Steinbock identifies the key characters in these organizations and takes a closer look at their interest conflicts and energy reserves, bilateral alliances, links among think-tanks, governments and moneymakers.

A Postcard from Malaysia

Seeking Alpha, Feb 25, 2019. Not so long ago, Malaysia was set to lose years of economic progress. Today, following the re-imposition of economic discipline, the country is almost back on track. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the Najib regression, Mahathir's fiscal consolidation, Anwar Ibrahim's expected rule, the return to robust growth and efforts to prepare for future economic contingencies.

Quest to Undermine Development Banks

China-US Focus, Feb 12, 2019. In the postwar era, the multilateral development banks were created to facilitate global trade. Today, they are ‘America First’ targets. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the unilateral record of David Malpass, President Trump's nominee for the next president of the World Bank; recent unilateralist shifts in the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and the Trump administration's effort to unilateralize the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The World Financial Review, Nov-Dec, 2018. The print version of Dr Steinbock's cover story has been released. The share of US dollar in international payments is disproportionate relative to America’s eroding global position and depends on international goodwill that Washington is shunning. US dollar is changing from a safe haven to a safe house that’s costly and vulnerable. The end of America’s “exorbitant privilege” looms in the horizon. [for the full cover story, please click the image]

Toward 'America First' World Trade

South China Morning Post, Oct 25, 2018. The era of post-1945 multilateralism is fading. After the revised NAFTA, Trump's dream is U.S.-dominated world trade and the ‘America First’ Asian Century, says Dr Steinbock. In this commentary, he assesses the USMCA economic and geopolitical impact not just on the old NAFTA deal, but on US-South America, US-EU, and US-Asia trade agreements.

Israel’s 50-Year Time Bomb

The Consortium News, Oct 16, 2018. In the quest to change Israel's very nature, the Netanyahu government is pushing Palestinians to an edge, with the support of the Trump White House. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock looks at the unsettling parallels between living standards between blacks in apartheid South Africa and Palestinians in Occupied Territories, the Netanyahu effort to undermine Israeli constitution, and 50 years of missed warnings.

The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War

The World Financial Review, Sept 14, 2018. In few months, the Trump administration has undermined more than seven decades of U.S. free trade legacies. Who are the policymakers behind this reversal. What is their agenda? And why is steel their common denominator?

GJIA: Trading the Global Future

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Aug. 20 - Sept 13, 2018. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs - a major US journal on international relations - has published Dr Steinbock's three-part series on "Trading the Global Future." It presents three arguments against the Trump administration's US-Sino Tariff Wars - bad timing, bad policies, and bad consequences. In the last part, he also outlines three possible outline scenarios - from costly bilaterally to very costly globally.

U-Turn Or Perfect Storm?

The World Financial Review, September 10, 2018. A decade ago, globalization peaked. Today, it remains in the doldrums. Consequently, the Trump trade wars take place at a historical moment, when globalization may further stagnate or even fall apart. In the commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at world investment, trade, finance and migration, in light of the Trump tariff wars. It is based on his global economic briefing that has triggered substantial debate.

Obrador's Mexican Triumph

ConsortiumNews (US), July 1, 2018. For decades, the specter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has haunted Mexico’s ruling elites. After July 1, his coalition triumph - after years of contested elections - could change the country’s domestic, regional, even international policies. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at Mexico's failure to sustain its BRIC potential in the neoliberal Calderón and Nieto years, contested elections and the dramatic rise of the Obrador coalition.

ShangriLa Arms Race Follow the Money

China-US Focus, June 7, 2018. As the Trump administration seeks to boost arms sales in Asia, the Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted annually by UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), is morphing into a marketing arm of Western arms exporters in Asia. But how are arms exports pivoting to emerging Asia? What are the trends in these arms imports? Following money takes us from the Shangri-La Dialogue to General Dynamics, arms-exports rivalries and public-private moral hazards.

How Chaos Capitalists Short Nations

China Daily, April 23, 2018. Since the 1980s, chaos capitalists have been undermining the progress of emerging economies. Under the pretext of “efficient markets,” they seek to exploit real or perceived weaknesses. Dr Steinbock examines the interplay of shorting and dominant media, how James Chanos got China wrong and how other chaos capitalists, including George Soros and Paul Singer, exploit private capital to destabilize China and Asian economies, Argentina and Peru, Nigeria and South Africa.

Petrodollar Versus Petroyuan

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, January 18, 2017. In the late 20th century, US petrodollar dominated the world economy. In the 21st century, we are witnessing the rise of the Chinese petroyuan. If the former grew on the back of postwar growth in the advanced economies, the latter is fueled by industrialization in emerging and developed economies.

What Really Happens in Iran?

China-US Focus, Jan. 15, 2018. Iran’s recent volatility reflects a US effort to undermine the nuclear accord as Iran is increasingly looking toward the East. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the US struggle for new sanctions and regime change, Iran's quest for economic stabilization and the shift toward the East.

The Trump IP War Against China

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, November 14, 2017. In recent weeks, intellectual property (IP) disputes have caused friction between Washington and Beijing. Will that friction spark a global trade war? In his commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a close look at contradictory views on Chinese IP, the post-hearings state of Sino-US IP relations, the US IP Commission's biased advocacy role, and the historical timing of the IP friction.

China's New Leadership

The World Financial Review, Oct. 26, 2017. After the 19th Congress, Xi’s China is preparing for a new roadmap domestically and internationally. This is Dr. Dan Steinbock’s in-depth analysis of China’s critical changes - new leadership, grand strategy, economic and industrial policies - that will shape the world economy until 2022 - and beyond.

Ratings Agencies' Double Standards

South China Morning Post, Oct. 22, 2017. Recently, credit ratings agencies cut China’s rating. Oddly enough, several advanced economies enjoy significantly higher credit ratings than China, even though their leverage ratios remain significantly worse. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock looks at China's leverage, advanced economies' debt and the ratings agencies' double standards.

Struggle for Bolivia's Future

TalkMarkets, October 12, 2017. While middle class Bolivians are demonstrating against the incumbent president’s bid to extend term limits, the country is thriving after a decade of progress under Evo Morales. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at a decade of progress under Morales, the shift from neoliberal policies to inclusive growth and Bolivia's future trajectories.

The Great Shift of Globalization

China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, Summer 2017. In this 8,300 word in-depth analysis for the prestigious CQISS, Dr Steinbock analyzes the current state of globalization, including the eclipse of the US postwar trade regime and the rise of 'south-to-south' trade (esp. OBOR). He concludes that while global economic integration was initiated by advanced West in the 20th century, it will be completed by emerging economies in the 21st century (click image for full abstract).

Brexit Weakens UK's Hand With EU

The European Financial Review, June 6, 2017. Prime Minister May pushed for a snap election in June 2017 to strengthen her hand in the impending Brexit talks. In practice, she may have weakened her bargaining power, while fostering that of the EU.

G20: Overcoming Global Steel Crisis

Think 20 Dialogue (G20 Germany), April 25, 2017. In 2016, advanced economies accused China for steel overcapacity. Before the Hamburg Summit, similar charges have surfaced. Yet, the postwar era has witnessed two steel overcapacity crises. The current debate cannot afford to ignore the past lessons. In this commentary for the prestigious G20 Germany blog, Dr Steinbock assesses the current steel output situation, overcapacity crises and policy responses in 70s and today, and the right solutions.

Le-Penization of France

The World Financial Review, March 31, 2017. In a new cover story, Dr Steinbock says that while media focuses on Emmanuel Macron as the savior of France, the real story is that Marine Le Pen's agenda has shifted the political landscape. Along with French economy, he looks at Macron's hidden financiers, Le Pen's agenda, Fillon's public debacle, and socialists Hamon and Mélenchon. To sustain the victory, the next president - most likely Macron in the 2nd round - must coopt Le Pen's agenda.

Time for African Economic Miracle

BusinessDay Nigeria, March 2, 2017. In the 20th century, Africa gained political independence but fell behind economic boom. In the 21st century, it is Africa’s turn – but not without stronger state and new external push. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock, like Justin Ifu Lin, advocates a new view of economic development, particularly to overcome illicit financial outflows, corruption and lawlessness in many emerging economies.

Why Are Pakistan's markets Soaring?

Global Times, December 21, 2016. During six decades of US aid, Pakistan’s living standards plunged. But in the past year, Asia’s largest frontier market delivered foretaste of its promise; with China’s support. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock's analyzes the forces behind Pakistan's recent market success, the eclipse of US-Pakistan military ties, Pakistan's economic development with China and the country's second historical effort of modernization.

The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

The European Financial Review, December 7, 2016. The rise of anti-establishment Italy is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy. In this long essay, Dr Steinbock analyzes the end of an era in Italy and Europe; the coming developments; the rise of Beppe Grillo's M5S and radical right; Italy's banking crisis; and political fragmentation as the effect of the 1990s Tangentopoli and US 'strategy of tension.'

Trump Trade with EU and Asia

EUobserver, Nov 17, 2016. After the Trump triumph, the current US free trade plans with the EU and Asia are suspended. New and revised deals must fulfill the Trump administration’s requirements. In this highly-anticipated commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at the fate of US free trade deals with Europe (TTIP) and Asia (TTP), Trump trade scenarios and China's new free-trade initiatives in Asia Pacific.

Barriers to China-India Trade?

Economic Times India, Oct. 28, 2016. In an interview with Rahul Sachitanand, Dr Steinbock talks about Chinese-Indian trade and potential bans and boycotts in India. "Economically, it would hurt India more than China... Politically, it would slow progress of bilateral relations and, strategically, it would foster the perception in Beijing that Indian trade policy is subject to the US pivot in Asia, as the US and India remain the largest sources of trade remedy probes against Chinese goods.”

From Renzi's Referendum to Italexit

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Aug 8, 2016. After Brexit tensions, Italy is defying Brussels to bail out troubled banks and preparing for constitutional referendum in October. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to achieve adequate support, economic destabilization will shift from the UK to Italy, which could pave way to the rise of radical right and left, even the return of Berlusconi's successors. This is Dr Steinbock's last travel report about Europe's 'summer of discontent.'

The Secret of the Swiss Miracle

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, August 4, 2016. Montreux-Lausanne-Geneva. In his new commentary on 'Europe’s Summer of Discontent,' Dr Steinbock argues that, despite Europe’s crisis turmoil, the Swiss growth engine seems even more resilient than before – perhaps not least because it has embraced the European Union, but not the euro. He examines Swiss franc and monetary policy, the financial cleanup, economic resilience, low unemployment and multiculturalism.

Brexit Uncertainty, Volatility, Risk

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, June 20, 2016. The UK’s EU referendum is too tight to call, which will virtually ensure protracted economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. The worst has already happened. In this essay, Dr Steinbock presents two obvious referendum outcome scenarios, two more probable scenarios, and a brief on the final outcome in view of the UK's democracy deficit. The result? More uncertainty, more volatility, more risk.

French Endgame About Labor Reforms

Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, June 13, 2016. The French government wants structural reforms, the unions don’t; nor does the majority of the French. The endgame has begun. In his Parisian commentary, Dr Steinbock examines, French struggle for reforms, France's secular stagnation, and labor aristocracy's neoconservative policies. He expects French turmoil to broaden. This commentary is the first of his travel reports about Europe's 'summer of discontent.'

China, Robotics and Development

Shanghai Daily, May 12, 2016. As advanced manufacturing is about to accelerate in China, the rules of economic development will change across the world. Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at manufacturing innovation from the US to China and the potential impact of robotics on economic development.

President Duterte, the US and China

CNN, May 11, 2016. How could Duterte’s presidency affect U.S.-Philippines relations? The next likely Philippines President will be more independent in critical economic, political and military decisions - decisions that will also shape Southeast Asia’s future.

After Global Commodities Super-Cycle

Shanghai Daily, May 5, 2016. While cyclical challenges remain tough in global commodities, structural realities look more tolerable. In this commentary, Dr Steinbock takes a closer look at investing after global commodities super-cycle. He analyzes the eclipse of the cycle and explains why it does not mean the 'end' of commodities investing.

Iran's Economy: New US Hurdles?

Mehr News Agency, Iran, April 30, 2016. Interview with news correspondent Lachin Rezaiian of Mehr News Agency of Iran.Today, the Iran nuclear deal is effective. Yet, Iran’s efforts to attract foreign investment and accelerate growth and prosperity face new hurdles, which seem to reflect Washington’s efforts to dent the agreement.

How Can Brazil Revive Its Growth?

The World Financial Review, Feb-Mar 2016. Only a few years ago, Brazil exemplified the BRIC dream of rapid growth. Now it is coping with its longest recession, loss of confidence, possibly a lost decade. Dan Steinbock explains what happened, and how and when Brazil could restore to its growth. In this longer commentary, he takes a closer look at the Lula boom era, the economic plunge during the Rousseff era, Brazil's diminished global prospects, and the Petrobras corruption scandal.

O novo plano quinquenal da China

Expresso, Nov. 7, 2015. In Portugal's leading business daily, Dr Steinbock examines China's new five-year plan. The brief was re-published by the Portuguese government. A desaceleração do crescimento e a duplicação dos padrões de vida favorecem o reequilíbrio da economia - se a geopolítica se mantiver positiva... A velha China das fábricas, investimentos e exportações está a desaparecer. A nova China dos serviços, inovação e consumo vai emergindo.

China's Challenging 13th 5-Year Plan

Voice of America, Oct 22, 2015. Chinese authorities are expected to unveil details about the country’s next five-year plan. Interviewed by VOA's Joyce Huang, Dr Steinbock says that the key to success is to time the reforms right. “If you move too fast, you risk additional unemployment, bad loans and social disharmony; if you move too slow, you will contribute to a false sense of stability, creeping asset bubbles and decreased growth over time."

Finland's Economic Stagnation.

EUobserver, April 18, 2015. A sense of crisis has finally arrived in Helsinki but much precious time has been missed. The past record of solid economic growth has stalled with the economy in recession for three out of the last five years.

China's Big Debt Swap

Foreign Affairs, March 18, 2015. China’s GDP growth rate is decelerating, due to international headwinds, property markets and local debt. Concurrently, the reforms are accelerating, as evidenced by the great swap deal.

Decline of US Military Innovation.

The Project Syndicate, Jan 27, 2015. Despite America’s superior military capabilities, U.S. defense innovation is at a challenging crossroads.